Global advertising revenue will surpass $1.67 trillion by 2030, up from $1.15 trillion in 2025 and $1.28 trillion this year, according to a new forecast by research and data firm Omdia, unveiled on Tuesday.
“But, of course, this growth trajectory could be severely impacted depending on the situation in the Gulf,” Maria Rua Aguete, global head of media & entertainment at the Informa TechTarget-owned firm, warned at the StreamTV Europe in Lisbon in reference to the Iran war.
“Unfortunately, in the world, there are conflicts, and this one is active,” said the expert, mentioning that her team has analyzed early signs of the impact in collaboration with WARC Media. “There are already losses happening, and they are predicting that in the next two years, the crisis will remove at least $94 billion due to the crisis and everything becoming more expensive and more going on around that part of the world.”
A graphic shown by Rua Aguete at the Lisbon event detailed an estimate of a $49.9 billion hit related to the Iran conflict to the forecast ad growth in 2026, from a $124.2 billion gain to $74.2 billion. That could be followed by a $44.0 billion impact on ad growth in 2027, which would bring the year’s projected gain from $108.8 billion to $64.0 billion.
Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed this weekend, but there have been efforts to restart negotiations that also include calls for an end to both sides’ blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This connection between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean is a key route for global trade, including shipments of oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and other goods.
Excluding any impacts from the Iran war, Omdia’s new forecast calls for an 11 percent ad gain this year, in line with 2025, followed by growth of 8 percent in 2027 and 2028, and a 6 percent increase in 2029 and 2030, respectively.
